Fourth Wave of Covid-19: As per a study conducted by IIT-K, India is expected to witness fourth covid-19 wave in the month of June. And the surge is expected to be there for over 4 months.
The third of of COVID-19 wave is almost coming to an end as it continues to show a declining trend. The researches from Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IIT-K) have predicted the fourth wave of covid-19 may set in around June 22 in the country.
But the severity of the fourth wave will largely depend on the onset of new variants along with the administration of booster doses and vaccination status in the country.
As per the latest Covid news, the above sensational research was led by Shalabh, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai of IIT Kanpur’s Mathematics department. All of them used a mixture of Gaussian distribution which was based on the data on Zimbabwe.
The above research conducted by IIT-K has still not reviewed and is already published as a pre-print in MedRxiv.
When will fourth Covid wave hit India?
As per the recent data shared by the researchers, it clearly indicates that the fourth wave of covid-19 in India is expected to arrive after a span of 936 days right from the date of initial availability of data which falls on January 30, 2020.
This is what researchers said, “Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022 and ends on October 24, 2022,” they said.
“Moreover, the 99% confidence interval for the date, when the curve will reach the peak, is approximately from August 15, 2022 to August 31, 2022,” the they added.
How severe will be the Fourth wave of Covid-19?
The study predicts that there is a fair chance that a new coronavirus variant may emerge in the country in the due coarse of time. They stated, “The intensity of the impact will depend on various factors like infectibility, fatality etc.,” the authors stated.
In addition to providing the report, the researchers also added that the severity of the 4th wave will also depend on the effect of the vaccinations. For example, the first, second or booster doses is also expected to play a crucial role regarding the infection rate.
How is the Next Variant Likely to Emerge?
The fourth wave of covid-19 is likely to emerge with a new variant in two different ways. They also stated that there is no guarantee that the upcoming variant will be less severe as compared to the previously identified ones.
Earlier, Omicron variant evolved which devastated the entire country for many months. It was composed of Omicron-plus variant that is worse than BA. 1 or BA.2.
There is another possibility according to which a new unrelated variant may appear. The report was submitted by Jesse Bloom, an evolutionary virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle told the scientific journal Nature.
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